Biodiversity impacts and nested trade models

Usually MRIO models are either global or subnational, with global models containing international trade relations between nations and subnational models containing trade between regions within a country. However neither of these models detail the relationships between local centers of production and global consumption. Specifying these relations requires a “nested” model, where the subnational models is nested with a global model.

Recently we constructed a nested MRIO model, featuring extensive subnational and global trade detail, and information on imports and exports between subnational Australian regions and global regions. Our aim was to show how a nested MRIO model offers a more accurate quantification of localized impacts than use of global-only models. To this end, we traced Australian beef along international trade routes, destined for consumption in the USA.

We linked the nested MRIO model with data on biodiversity threats from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species, specifically “Animalia” kingdom that are listed as “Critically Endangered”, “Endangered”, and “Vulnerable”, and that are threatened by livestock farming (by both smallholders and agro-industry) in all Australian regions. We highlight the distribution of threats obtained from the nested MRIO model to show the power of this nesting technique in capturing localized impacts, specifically in the Northern regions of Australia, which export beef to the USA.

For more detail see: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.1c08804

 

Distribution of biodiversity threats in Australia, driven by beef consumption in the USA: based on the global model.

Distribution of biodiversity threats in Australia, driven by beef consumption in the USA: based on a nested model