In a recent paper, we linked malaria and deforestation through supply chains to consumers. Deforestation can increase the transmission of malaria. In this study, we build upon the existing link between malaria risk and deforestation by investigating how the global demand for commodities that increase deforestation can also increase malaria risk. We use a database of trade relationships to link the consumption of deforestation-implicated commodities in developed countries to estimates of country-level malaria risk in developing countries. We estimate that about 20% of the malaria risk in deforestation hotspots is driven by the international trade of deforestation-implicated export commodities, such as timber, wood products, tobacco, cocoa, coffee and cotton. By linking malaria risk to final consumers of commodities, we contribute information to support demand-side policy measures to complement existing malaria control interventions, with co-benefits for reducing deforestation and forest disturbance.
This figure shows trends in forestation, trade in deforestation-implicated products, and post-2000 malaria footprints. Panels (a), (b) and (c) each show a collection of net exporting (magenta) and net importing (green) countries. Axes are logarithmic, with negative values representing deforestation (for example −1 equals a cumulative 10,000 km2 forest loss since 1995) and product import (for example −2 equals a US$100 bn import). Plotted points represent the years between 2000 and 2015 in 3-year intervals where line thickness is proportional to net malaria risk trade, and net exporters represented by a solid line, net importers by a dashed line. The time series proceeds from the origin outwards and also with increasing line thickness. As time progresses, richer countries import more deforestation-implicated products which causes deforestation in poorer countries, while at the same time preserving more of their own forest.